Decentralizing AI for Democratic Empowerment
AGI is going to come from a private company, the government simply doesn't have enough video cards. This is expected under capitalism, but what are the consequences of having so much power concentrated in a for-profit corporation?
How Much Could One AI Cost?
The first thing to understand is just how expensive it is to train these models and what that means for the landscape of AI development. Ballpark numbers show jaw-dropping amounts of money being required to train frontier AI models, $80M for GPT-4 and $190M for Gemini Ultra to give a sense of scale.
This means that advancements are concentrated in the hands of a few industry giants, so it's worth getting to know them before continuing. Of note is where they got their funding, but of special interest is where they got the actual hardware to train their models and run their operations since that's still a major bottleneck.
OpenAI: Funded by Microsoft (though possibly not for long), OpenAI is the company behind ChatGPT. They have a close partnership with nVidia for hardware.
Google: Richer than God. Developed its own custom AI chips called Tensor Processing Units (TPUs).
Meta: Also has more money than they know what to do with. Has a huge portfolio of compute power by sheer luck of the Metaverse being a failure.
Anthropic: Funded by VC. Dependent on Google and to a lesser extent Amazon for cloud services.
Setting Money on Fire
Additionally, beyond training the models, there are also the costs of running them. Most of these services operate at a loss, working as an advertisement for enterprise customers. Massive amounts of money are funneled in, as if normal pressure to recoup investments is bypassed by the hopes of the big breakthrough that will capture the entire market.
AI Oligarchy
In 2023, the United States saw AI investments reach $67.2 billion, nearly 8.7 times more than China, the next highest investor. In that same year, the U.S. produced 70% of new models, reinforcing this "AI oligarchy".
What happens to the rest of the world? As AI continues to become more powerful, the gap between the haves and have nots will only grow. How many video cards does Papau New Guinea have?
Barriers to Entry
The costs have continued to skyrocket, with each new model costing more than the last to train and run. Lack of access to specialized GPUs and hardware makes it nearly impossible for new entrants to compete. Even if the money hurdles could be overcome, the proprietary datasets and closed-source algorithms prevent building on top of existing work.
Normally academic research would pace the private sector but due to the astronomical costs involved, it's as if it's seen as a lost cause since public investment in AI research and infrastructure lags so far behind that it's barely worth mentioning.
Impact of an AI Monopoly
In AI, centralization, and the One Ring, Owen Cotton-Barratt brings up a number of concerns regarding the concentration of power in AI, showing how a single entity gaining control over AGI would concentrate immense power, risking societal disempowerment and democratic erosion.
The Dangers of Singular Control: A single company achieving AGI would be granted vast authority over global systems and economies. Minimal external accountability would insulate such an organization from prosocial pressures that normally encourage ethical alignment.
Illegitimacy Without Public Buy-In: When AI is centralized without public oversight and rapidly deployed it risks being seen as forced. Legitimacy relies on citizen involvement and oversight, ensuring an alignment with broader public interests.
Undermining of Social Dynamics: A heavily centralized AI entity, insulated from the societal pressures that incentivize ethical behavior, may rationalize self-serving motives and ignore ethical standards to retain power. It's easy to imagine a centralized project prioritizing control over public benefit.
AI's Perspective
There's a lack of attention to grassroots movements and community-driven AI development. Empowering local communities to participate in AI creation can lead to more relevant and ethical applications, fostering innovation that reflects diverse needs and values.
ChatGPT o1-preview 2024-10-29
Pathways to Decentralized AI
Support Open-Source: Support and fund open-source AI projects to democratize access. Make AI technology accessible to all.
Encourage Distributed AI: Support the development of decentralized AI models and networks, reducing reliance on centralized infrastructure.
Demand Policy Reforms: Advocate for regulations that prevent monopolistic control over AI technologies and data.
Empower Community Development: Facilitate local and community-driven AI projects that address specific needs and values.